The following is a complex analysis for a unique property where standard appraisal techniques were vague.
The following analysis studies sales trends within Blackhawk, and includes MLS data for six months of sold activity and current data for pending and active homes for sales similar to the subject property plus or minus 300 sf. (3000-3600). I believe that the data indicates a value for 3247 Blackhawk Meadows Drive in the range of $1,400,000, when considering a superior home in an excellent location on a compact but desirable lot.
To project an average based on the size of the subject, I adjusted the sold prices by $200 per square foot of interior space. Although lot size needs to be considered, it is less critical for two reasons: (1) people regard interior space as more important, and (2) exterior space can vary tremendously in usability and appeal (i.e., slopes, landscaping, etc.). There is an approximate 85% correlation between lot size and price in this data; however, the percentage of the change in the total value is a small component. Properties exceeding $1.4 million have larger lots.
Also note that the homes have not been selling for over asking price (see variance column), but the average sale is 5% under the asking price. However, in the pending properties most of the homes sold within a week, so I would expect that full-price was achieved. In the case of the home, which was 20 days on the market, I am projecting a $75,000 price reduction based on the trend in the sold data.
Few agents are specifying a date on which offers are to be reviewed; this is an indication that multiple bids are not expected.
There is a 40% correlation between the Variance (list to sold) and DOM (days on market) columns; clearly overpriced properties are taking longer to sell. .
On the map below the subject property is shown as a blue dot, and the relative location of the comparables used in the analysis above are shown as red stars for sold properties and pink squares for pending or active homes, with leader lines to their street addresses and size adjusted sale prices. Note that the values have been adjusted by $200 per square foot to the size of the subject, and the pending properties are shown at my projected price. The Active has not been on the market long enough to tell whether it is attractively priced.
The subject property's location in the center of the
development and in proximity to large high-end properties tends to elevate the
value, but there is a limitation to this boost by proximity.
The chart below shows the sales trends for Blackhawk in blue, Danville in pink, and the associated trend curves. The yellow mark and line show the last sale of the subject property and a line which simulates the start and end points for Blackhawk sales (sale date of subject and today), adjusted up for the premium paid (over the average) for the subject at the last sale date.
This data seems to project a sale price under $1.3 million, but the subject has been aesthetically improved since the last sale. It is interesting to note that the 2000 purchase of the subject was about 60k over the list price with only eight days of MLS market exposure in a market where homes were selling at an average of $7,000 over list price with an average of 15 days of MLS exposure. There is no reason to assume that the home sold beneath its value, when it went into contract in April 2000.
Homes this size in Blackhawk seem to carry an approximate $110,000 value premium over average homes in Danville outside of Blackhawk. The subject property, based on its prior sale seems to carry an approximate $75,000 premium over the average Blackhawk home in this size range.